California is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Every year, it seems like the news gets grimmer: more wildfires, more heat waves, longer droughts, more intense storms, less snow pack, and less fresh water. Annual average air temperatures have already increased by about 1.8 °F in California, and that number will likely double even if the world can reduce emissions 80% by 2050. San Rafael needs to be prepared for the likely impacts of climate change, including flooding from more intense storms and sea level rise, health impacts from heat exposure and poor air quality, and safety risks from the increased likelihood of wildfires and landslides.
Sea level rise is a particular concern to San Rafael, where many homes, businesses, and industrial and recreational facilities are at risk for flooding. Sea level has already risen 8” in San Francisco Bay and is expected to rise another 10 inches by 2040. Within this short time period, the Canal area, the Kerner Business District, and other shoreline development will likely experience tidal flooding. The Canal neighborhood residents, the majority of whom are lower-income and Latino, will be some of the first people impacted by sea level rise at their front doors.
Storm surges coupled with a 10” sea level rise could flood a greater area – up to 10% of San Rafael’s land area – including Peacock Gap and the industrial and commercial area of Anderson Drive. By the end of the century, sea level is projected to rise 2.4 to 3.4 feet, and possibly as much as 5 feet. At the higher end, nearly 2,500 buildings, or 13% of all San Rafael buildings, could face some level of tidal flooding. A comprehensive assessment of San Rafael’s vulnerable assets was completed in 2017. For more information, see the Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Assessment. While the Climate Change Action Plan contains some measures that address adaptation, a more complete set of goals, policies and programs are contained in the San Rafael Local Hazard Mitigation Plan and will be incorporated in the City’s updated General Plan.
In addition to adaptation strategies, this section contains measures to sequester carbon dioxide through planting and preservation of trees and other vegetation and the development of carbon-rich soils. Carbon offsets are often used to fund these types of carbon sequestration projects and can be purchased to offset emissions that are difficult to otherwise mitigate, such as airplane flights. We haven’t credited emission reductions for these actions because we don’t count sequestered carbon in the community greenhouse gas inventory, but we recognize that sequestration is a critical component to meeting our carbon reduction goals.
The City will take the following actions to sequester carbon dioxide and adapt to climate change.
Table 13: sequestration and adaptation measures to reduce community emissions
| ID | Measure |
| SA-C1 | Urban Forest |
| SA-C2 | Carbon Sequestration |
| SA-C3 | Carbon Offsets |
| SA-C4 | Sea Level Rise |
| SA-C5 | Climate Change Adaptation |
What is the City of San Rafael Going to Do to Help?
Increase carbon sequestration and improve air quality and natural cooling through increasing tree cover in San Rafael.
- Plant additional trees on City-owned land, including public parks, open space, medians, and rights of way, where feasible.
- Review parking lot landscape standards to maximize tree cover, size, growth, and sequestration potential.
- Regulate and minimize removal of large trees and require planting of replacement trees.
- Require that the site planning, construction and maintenance of new development preserve existing healthy trees and native vegetation on site to the maximum extent feasible. Replace trees and vegetation not able to be saved.
- Encourage community members to plant trees on private land. Consider creating a tree giveaway event or providing lower-cost trees to the public through a bulk purchasing program.
- Encourage the creation of community gardens on public and private lands by community groups.
- Provide information to the public, including landscape companies, gardeners and nurseries, on carbon sequestration rates, drought tolerance, and fire resistance of different tree species.
- Manage trees and invasive species in the open space for forest health and reduction of fuel load.
- Require new development, redevelopment, and infrastructure projects to implement best management practices as feasible, including low-impact development techniques, the minimal use of non-pervious surfaces in landscape design, and the integration of natural features into the project design, to naturally filter and biodegrade contaminants and to minimize surface runoff into drainage systems and creeks.
Increase carbon sequestration in the built environment, developed landscapes, and natural areas.
- Encourage use of building materials that store carbon, such as wood and carbon-intensive concrete through agency partnerships and engagement campaigns.
- Encourage and support composting to develop healthy, carbon-rich soils.
- Manage parks and open spaces to steadily increase carbon in vegetation and soil.
- Increase the extent and carbon sequestration potential of bay wetlands, through improvements such as horizontal levees.
Reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions through the purchase of carbon offsets.
- Encourage community members to purchase carbon offsets to reduce their carbon footprint through engagement campaigns.
- Consider partnering with a local non-profit organization to promote a carbon offset program.
- Focus on offsetting emissions that are difficult to mitigate otherwise, such as airplane travel.
Prepare for and adapt to a rising sea level.
- Consider the potential for sea level rise when processing development applications that might be affected by such a rise. Use current Flood Insurance Rate Maps and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recommendations associated with base flood elevation adjustments for sea level rise in the review of development proposals. Adopt requirements to assess sea level rise risks on new development, infrastructure, and transit corridors.
- Prepare a guidance document for incorporating sea level rise into the City’s capital planning process.
- Work with local, County, state, regional, and federal agencies with Bay and shoreline oversight and with owners of critical infrastructure and facilities in the preparation of a plan for responding to rising sea levels. Make sure all local stakeholders are kept informed of such planning efforts.
- Investigate developing flood control projects and modifying the City’s land use regulations for areas subject to increased flooding from sea level rise.
- Update GIS (Geographic Information System) maps to include new data as it becomes available; utilize GIS as a tool for tracking sea level rise and flooding and make available to the public.
- Study the creation of a Bayfront overlay zone or similar that would establish standards for developing in areas subject to flooding from SLR.
Prepare for and respond to the expected impacts of climate change.
- Continue to incorporate the likelihood of sea level rise and increased risk of wildfire and extreme heat and storm events in the City’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.
- Incorporate the likelihood of climate change impacts into City emergency planning and training.
- Coordinate with water districts, wildlife agencies, flood control and fire districts, Marin County, and other relevant organizations to develop a comprehensive plan addressing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Address human health and the health and adaptability of natural systems, including the following:
- Water resources, including expanded rainwater harvesting, water storage and conservation techniques, water reuse, water‐use and irrigation efficiency, and reduction of impervious surfaces.
- Biological resources, including land acquisition, creation of marshlands/wetlands as a buffer against sea level rise and flooding, and protection of existing natural barriers.
- Public health, including heat‐related health plans, vector control, air quality, safe water, and improved sanitation.
- Environmental hazard defenses, including seawalls, storm surge barriers, pumping stations, and fire prevention and suppression.
- Ensure fair and robust inclusion of lower-income households and our diverse communities in the planning and response to climate change impacts, including sea level rise, wildfire, public health, and emergency preparedness.